By: Ìtàn’ Abdullahi Ayọ̀bámi
The unfolding contest over who succeeds Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq in 2027 is no longer a routine transition conversation within the All Progressives Congress. It is steadily evolving into a defining moment that will determine whether the party consolidates its hold on Kwara or inadvertently reopens the door to forces it once decisively displaced.
Beneath the visible arguments around zoning lies a more delicate reality: the proliferation of aspirants across Kwara North, South, and Central has created overlapping ambitions that, if not carefully managed, could fracture the party from within. Already, subtle pressure campaigns and coordinated narratives are emerging, including recent public calls for the ticket to be zoned to Kwara South. While such appeals may appear organic, they reflect a deeper contest to influence the eventual direction of national leadership.
History offers a useful guide. In 2019, the decisive intervention of the Presidency shaped the outcome in Kwara, prioritising strategic victory over competing internal interests. A similar scenario is likely in 2027, especially given the stakes involved and the known capacity of the opposition to exploit any internal weakness. For the APC, the central question will not simply be who deserves the ticket, but who can secure the state with minimal resistance while preserving internal cohesion.
This is where the conversation must shift from sentiment to structure.
One of the most underestimated variables in Kwara politics is the enduring influence of identity, cultural legitimacy, and cross-regional acceptance. In this regard, Senator Saliu Mustapha occupies a unique position that extends beyond conventional political capital. His traditional titles are not ceremonial adornments; they are strategic bridges across the state’s diverse sociopolitical landscape.
As Turaki of Ilorin Emirate, he holds a revered position at the heart of Kwara Central’s political and cultural nucleus. Beyond this, his recognition as Aare Atunluse of Oro-Ago Kingdom and Agbaakin of Isin Kingdom embeds him deeply within Kwara South’s Igbomina axis. His title as Maiyegun of Obo-Aiyegunle further strengthens his cultural reach within Ekiti-speaking communities of the South. Extending beyond Kwara’s immediate geography, his conferment as First Tabariki N’Nupe of Bida Emirate connects him to the Nupe-speaking population, a significant voting bloc spanning parts of Kwara North, particularly Edu and Patigi.
Taken together, these titles reflect something far more strategic than honour. They represent acceptance across fault lines that have historically shaped electoral outcomes in the state. In a contest where building a pan-Kwara coalition is critical, such organic legitimacy cannot be easily manufactured or replicated.
Equally important is the question of trust within the party, particularly from the perspective of national leadership. Political loyalty is often spoken of, but rarely demonstrated under pressure. In 2018, during the APC governorship primaries, Mustapha faced one of the most defining moments of his political career. Despite being controversially excluded mid-process, he chose not to destabilise the party. Instead, he redirected his structure, resources, and supporters towards the eventual flagbearer, AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, contributing materially to the victory that dismantled the Saraki’s political grip in the state.
A similar pattern emerged in 2022 during the APC national convention. As an aspirant for the position of National Chairman, Mustapha stepped down in deference to the party’s consensus arrangement. At a time when many would have resisted or negotiated aggressively, he again chose alignment over confrontation. These moments, often overlooked in the immediacy of political contests, become critical reference points when questions of trust and predictability arise at the highest levels of decision-making.
Beyond party structures and political calculations lies another layer of influence that often proves decisive in Kwara politics: human impact. Long before holding elective office, Mustapha had already built a reputation anchored in consistent, large-scale social intervention through the Saliu Mustapha Foundation. This was not an initiative activated by electoral ambition. It was a sustained commitment that predates his senatorial mandate and cuts across all sixteen local government areas of the state.
Through the foundation, hundreds of students have accessed educational opportunities that would otherwise have remained out of reach. In 2024 alone, over 200 orphans across the state were awarded scholarships, a gesture that resonated deeply within communities where access to education remains a critical challenge. Beyond scholarships, the foundation has supported small businesses, provided relief materials to vulnerable households, and intervened in moments of personal and communal distress. This consistency has quietly built a reservoir of goodwill that extends beyond political affiliation and into personal loyalty.
Closely tied to this is an unusual but significant dimension of his public perception: interfaith trust. Kwara being a state where religious balance is often delicately managed, Mustapha has earned commendation from the Christian Association of Nigeria in Kwara for his openness, accessibility, and willingness to respond to their needs without bias. Leaders within the Christian community have repeatedly acknowledged that his interventions, support for church-related initiatives, and readiness to engage across religious lines reflect a level of inclusiveness that is both rare and politically stabilising. In practical terms, this has helped to soften traditional divides and expand his acceptability beyond conventional political boundaries.
At the national level, alignment with federal policy priorities remains a critical consideration. Within President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, agriculture occupies a central position as a pathway to economic stability and food security. Between pages 26 and 29 of the policy framework, the emphasis on expanding cultivated land, strengthening food systems, and driving rural productivity is clearly articulated as a national priority.
Mustapha’s legislative and programmatic focus aligns closely with this direction. His sponsorship of the National Food Reserve Agency (establishment) Bill is designed to institutionalise a coordinated grain storage system capable of stabilising food supply and pricing across the country. Similarly, the Mandatory Cassava Inclusion in Flour Production Bill introduces a structural shift aimed at reducing dependence on imported wheat while boosting local agricultural value chains.
The Senate unanimously passed the bills, which will now be transmitted to the House of Representatives for concurrence before being forwarded to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for assent. These are not symbolic legislative efforts. They speak directly to the economic realities the current administration seeks to address.
Beyond legislation, his interventions on the ground reinforce this policy alignment. His large-scale agricultural and human capital empowerment initiative in Kwara Central stands out as one of the most extensive in recent political memory. Over 3,500 constituents benefited after undergoing structured training programmes. The distribution was not limited to token items. It included tractors, fertilizers, livestock such as cows, cassava processing machines, rice milling equipment, pumping machines, tricycles, and vehicles.
The strategic importance of this scale of empowerment lies in its multiplier effect. By equipping farmers, small-scale processors, and entrepreneurs with tools of production, the initiative directly contributes to food security, job creation, and rural economic expansion. It also aligns with broader national efforts to transition Nigeria from consumption-driven to production-based growth.
These interventions have drawn participation and endorsement from key national figures, including the Deputy Senate President and the Minister of Agriculture, further reinforcing their credibility and alignment with federal objectives.
When placed alongside the trajectories of other aspirants, the distinctions become clearer.
In Kwara North, Hon. Salihu Yakubu Danladi represents a youthful leadership profile but lacks demonstrable statewide acceptance. Professor Wale Sulaiman’s credentials are globally respected, yet his departure from APC to contest under another platform in 2023 raises questions about party loyalty at critical moments. Bashir Omolaja Bolarinwa’s experience within the party is notable, but his tenure was marked by internal divisions that weakened cohesion. Senator Yahaya Oloriegbe’s competence is acknowledged, though his political journey reflects moments of tension within party structures following primary contests.
Each brings strengths, but each also carries variables that may introduce risk when assessed against the broader objective of unity and stability.
Overlaying all of this is the enduring presence of Bukola Saraki, whose political relevance in Kwara remains tied to his ability to read and exploit divisions within opposing camps. A fragmented APC, particularly one distracted by zoning disputes and competing ambitions, presents precisely the kind of environment in which opposition resurgence becomes possible.
For the Presidency and APC national leadership, the decision will ultimately come down to a careful balancing of risk and reward. The candidate who emerges must not only be capable of winning but must also reduce the likelihood of internal conflict, align with national priorities, and sustain governance stability beyond the election.
In moments like this, the most strategic choices are rarely the loudest. They are the ones that quietly satisfy the most conditions.
Kwara’s political future will not be determined by sentiment alone. It will be shaped by a clear-eyed assessment of who can hold the state together, deliver victory, and sustain the confidence of both the people and the party.
Kwara is too strategic to be left to chance. APC cannot afford an internal miscalculation that reopens the door for opposition resurgence. The party must prioritise certainty over sentiment, unity over fragmentation, and proven capacity over speculative promise.
Senator Saliu Mustapha represents that convergence of factors. Not as a matter of preference, but as a matter of political logic. To secure Kwara, preserve party stability, and reinforce national alignment, APC must rally behind him.
Ìtàn’ Abdullahi Ayọ̀bámi, a Communication Strategist and Independent Thinker (Abuja), He can be reached via itanayobami@gmail.com
